Jurnal maqolasiOchiq kirish
So‘nggi o‘n yilliklarda O‘zbekistonning tog‘li havzalarida daryo suv sarfining sezilarli kamayishi
Significant reduction of river discharge in the mountainous basins of Uzbekistan over the last decades
- Department of Environmental Physical and Chemical Processes Research, Hydrometeorological Research Institute, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
- Department of Hydrometeorology, National University of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
- Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Uji, Japan
- Faculty of Biology, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland
https://doi.org/10.3178/hrl.25-00024
Asosiy jihatlar
- 2001–2023 gidrologik yillari; meteostansiyalar: Oyg‘aing (Piskom havzasi) va Minchuqur (Uradaryo havzasi); gidropostlar: Mullala va Pachkamar.
- Mavsumiy qor qalinligining 90-protsentili: Piskom havzasida 2000-yillar boshida ko‘pincha 200 sm dan ortiq (2009-yilda taxminan 230 sm), 2011-yildan keyin asosan 140 sm dan kam; Uradaryo havzasida kamdan-kam 120 sm dan ortiq, 2018-yildan keyin asosan 60 sm dan kam.
- Bahorgi havo harorati: Piskom havzasida yiliga +0,09 °C (jami 1,98 °C), Uradaryo havzasida yiliga +0,07 °C (1,54 °C).
- Vegetatsiya davridagi (aprel–sentabr) suv sarfi: Piskomda yiliga −2,41 m³/s (p = 0,0004; jami taxminan −53 m³/s), Uradaryoda yiliga −0,28 m³/s (p = 0,038; taxminan −6 m³/s).
- 2021–2022-yillardagi suv sarfi: Uradaryoda ko‘p yillik o‘rtachadan 70–80%, Piskomda 30% kam.
- Yanvar–mart qor qalinligi bilan iyun–avgust suv sarfi o‘rtasidagi korrelyatsiya: R = 0,53 (Piskom), 0,54 (Uradaryo).
Annotatsiya
Snow is the main hydrological component, and its contribution plays a key role in runoff formation in Uzbekistan, Central Asia. However, climate change has altered snow accumulation dynamics over the past two decades. This study investigated the impacts of seasonal changes in snow on river runoff in the Pskem and Uradarya Basins over the past 22 hydrological years (2001–2023), considering air temperature and precipitation variations. In-situ data from meteorological and hydrological stations in the study areas were used to examine the trend dynamics during the study period. Pearson’s correlation analysis was applied to examine the statistical relationship between the winter snow accumulation and summer discharge. The statistical significance of the trend dynamics was tested using the Mann-Kendall test. The results revealed a significant reduction in snow accumulation over the study period and the number of overall snowfall days, with a marked decline observed in recent years. Consequently, the contribution of seasonal snow to river runoff has markedly decreased, leading to a reduction in the discharge volume during the vegetation period. A reduction in discharge volume in both basins over the past 22-year period (2001–2023) was statistically confirmed based on in-situ data.
Inglizcha annotatsiya maqoladan olingan. Mualliflar annotatsiyasi CC BY 4.0 litsenziyasi asosida keltirilgan. Annotatsiya ingliz tilida berilgan.
Kalit so‘zlar
- qor qoplami
- suv sarfi
- tog‘ havzasi
- iqlim o‘zgarishi
- oqim
Sodda qilib aytganda
Tadqiqotda ikki tog‘ havzasidagi stansiyalarning 2001–2023 gidrologik yillardagi kunlik kuzatuvlari ishlatilgan: O‘zbekistonning shimoli-sharqidagi, Chirchiqning asosiy irmog‘i Piskom va janubdagi, Qashqadaryo havzasiga kiruvchi Uradaryo. Qor qalinligi (noyabr–aprel), havo harorati va yog‘inlar Oyg‘aing va Minchuqur meteostansiyalaridan, daryo suvi sarfi esa O‘zgidrometning Mullala (Piskom) va Pachkamar (Uradaryo) gidropostlaridan olingan. Trendlar Mann–Kendall testi va chiziqli regressiya bilan tekshirilgan, yanvar–mart oylaridagi qor qalinligi iyun–avgustdagi suv sarfi bilan solishtirilgan.
Qor qalinligi ikkala havzada ham barcha protsentillar bo‘yicha sezilarli kamaygan. Piskom havzasida mavsumiy qor qalinligining 90-protsentili 2000-yillar boshida ko‘pincha 200 sm dan oshgan va 2009-yilda taxminan 230 sm ga yetgan; 2011-yildan keyin aksariyat yillarda 140 sm dan kam bo‘lgan. Uradaryo havzasida u kamdan-kam hollarda 120 sm dan oshgan va 2018-yildan beri aksariyat yillarda 60 sm dan kam. Havo haroratining issiq ekstremumlari (90-protsentil) yiliga taxminan 0,05 °C ga, butun davr mobaynida qariyb 1,1 °C ga oshgan, eng kuchli isish esa bahorda kuzatilgan: Piskom havzasida yiliga 0,09 °C (jami 1,98 °C), Uradaryo havzasida yiliga 0,07 °C (1,54 °C). Qishki isish kuchsiz va statistik ahamiyatsiz, kuz esa biroz sovigan. Yillik yog‘inlar Piskom havzasida yiliga 4,64 mm (p = 0,48), Uradaryo havzasida yiliga 11,13 mm (p = 0,06) kamaygan.
Vegetatsiya davridagi (aprel–sentabr) o‘rtacha suv sarfi Piskomda yiliga 2,41 m³/s ga, butun davrda taxminan 53 m³/s ga, Uradaryoda yiliga 0,28 m³/s ga, taxminan 6 m³/s ga kamaygan. Piskomda 125 m³/s dan, Uradaryoda 10 m³/s dan yuqori suv sarfi 2012-yilgacha tez-tez kuzatilgan, undan keyin esa kamdan-kam uchragan; 2021–2022-yillarda Uradaryo suvi ko‘p yillik o‘rtachadan 70–80%, Piskom suvi 30% kam bo‘lgan. Qishki qor qalinligi bilan yozgi suv sarfi o‘zaro bog‘liq (Piskomda R = 0,53, Uradaryoda 0,54), shuning uchun mualliflar qor zaxirasining kamayishini yozgi suv sarfi pasayishining asosiy sababi deb hisoblaydi; bahorgi isish va qor o‘rniga yomg‘ir yog‘ishining ko‘payishi ham o‘z hissasini qo‘shadi. Ular ko‘proq stansiyalar ma’lumotlari asosida gidrologik modellashtirishni va suv xo‘jaligini erta erish hamda yozgi suv kamligiga moslashtirishni taklif qiladi.
Rasmlar (3)
Iqtibos namunasi
A. Mamaraimov, B. Nishonov, A. Gafurov and T. Khujanazarov (2026). Significant reduction of river discharge in the mountainous basins of Uzbekistan over the last decades. Hydrological Research Letters, 20(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.3178/hrl.25-00024