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O‘zbekistonda yog‘inlarning barqaror izotop tarkibini turli regressiya usullari bilan tahlil qilish

Analysis of the Stable Isotopic Composition of Precipitation in Uzbekistan Using Different Regression Methods

Serik Isabekov, Bakhriddin Nishonov, Utkir Balxiev, Bekhzod Nishonov, Tamara Marković

PDFni ko‘rish2,4 MB Iqtibos

https://doi.org/10.17794/cgc.2026.11

Asosiy jihatlar

  • Oltita GNIP stansiyasi, 2022–2025-yillar: Toshkent (467 m), Ohangaron (945 m), Boshqizilsoy (1 272 m), Farg‘ona (582 m), Samarqand (726 m) va Shahrisabz (625 m).
  • Oddiy eng kichik kvadratlar usulidagi mahalliy meteor suv chiziqlari: Toshkent δ²H = 7,46 δ¹⁸O + 6,30; Ohangaron δ²H = 7,93 δ¹⁸O + 15,16; Boshqizilsoy δ²H = 7,93 δ¹⁸O + 13,90.
  • Oddiy eng kichik kvadratlar usulidagi mahalliy meteor suv chiziqlari: Farg‘ona δ²H = 7,40 δ¹⁸O + 3,13; Samarqand δ²H = 7,86 δ¹⁸O + 11,07; Shahrisabz δ²H = 8,22 δ¹⁸O + 18,26.
  • Yog‘in miqdori bilan tortilgan chiziqlar (PWLSR): qiyalik 7,63–8,35, ozod had 7,82–20,26; eng kichigi Toshkentda, eng kattasi Shahrisabzda.
  • Oltita regressiya usuli solishtirildi: oddiy eng kichik kvadratlar, keltirilgan katta o‘q va katta o‘q usullari — har biri tortilmagan va yog‘in miqdori bilan tortilgan holda.

Annotatsiya

Stable isotopes δ¹⁸O and δ²H are widely used as tracers for investigating hydrological processes, including groundwater recharge, evaporation, and surface water–groundwater interactions. This study evaluates the isotopic composition of precipitation in Uzbekistan, using data from six Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations. Local Meteoric Water Lines (LMWLs) were established using six different regression methods and compared with the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL) to assess regional isotope variability and the influence of climatic and geographic factors. The results reveal considerable spatial variability in isotopic composition of precipitation across Uzbekistan. Most LMWLs closely follow the GMWL, indicating that equilibrium condensation is the dominant isotope-fractionation process. Mountain stations exhibit higher slopes and intercepts, reflecting reduced evaporation effects and stronger orographic influences, whereas lowland stations show evidence of enhanced evaporative enrichment. These spatial variations are primarily controlled by altitude, continentality, and local climatic conditions. The derived LMWLs provide an important reference framework for future hydrological, hydrogeological, and climate-related investigations in Uzbekistan and contribute to a better understanding of regional water-cycle processes.

Maqoladagi inglizcha annotatsiya. Mualliflar annotatsiyasi CC BY 4.0 litsenziyasi asosida keltirilgan. Annotatsiya ingliz tilida berilgan.

Kalit so‘zlar

  • δ¹⁸O va δ²H
  • korrelyatsiya
  • yog‘inlar
  • GNIP stansiyalari
  • O‘zbekiston

Sodda qilib aytganda

Yog‘inlardagi izotoplar global tarmog‘ining (GNIP) O‘zbekistondagi oltita stansiyasida — Toshkent, Ohangaron, Boshqizilsoy, Farg‘ona, Samarqand va Shahrisabzda — 2022–2025-yillarda yog‘ingarchilikdagi kislorod va vodorodning barqaror izotoplari (δ¹⁸O va δ²H) tahlil qilindi. Stansiyalar dengiz sathidan 467 m dan 1 272 m gacha balandlikda joylashgan. Har bir stansiya uchun mahalliy meteor suv chizig‘i oltita regressiya usulida qurildi, ulardan uchtasi yog‘in miqdori bilan tortilgan. Chiziqlar global chiziq δ²H = 8 δ¹⁸O + 10 bilan solishtirildi.

Oddiy eng kichik kvadratlar usulida chiziq qiyaligi Farg‘onada 7,40 dan Shahrisabzda 8,22 gacha, ozod had esa Farg‘onada 3,13 dan Shahrisabzda 18,26 gacha o‘zgaradi. Ko‘pchilik qiyaliklar 8 ga yaqin: demak, asosiy omil — muvozanatli kondensatsiya. Mualliflar Shahrisabz va Boshqizilsoydagi yuqoriroq qiyalik va ozod hadni salqinroq sharoit, kamroq bug‘lanish va orografik ta’sir bilan, Toshkent va Farg‘onadagi pastroq qiymatlarni esa issiq va quruq havoda tushayotgan yomg‘irning bug‘lanishi bilan bog‘laydi. Yog‘in miqdori bilan tortilgan regressiyalar odatda tortilmaganlariga qaraganda biroz kattaroq qiyalik va ozod had beradi.

Stansiyalarda δ¹⁸O yozda yuqoriroq, qishda pastroq. Shahrisabzda iyun–avgustda yomg‘ir juda kam yog‘adi, shu sababli u yerda yozgi qiymatlarni solishtirib bo‘lmagan. Mualliflar bu chiziqlarni O‘zbekistonda kelgusidagi gidrologik va gidrogeologik ishlar uchun tayanch sifatida taqdim etadi.

Rasmlar (2)

O‘zbekiston va qo‘shni davlatlarning sun’iy yo‘ldosh xaritasi, raqamlangan oltita GNIP stansiyasi bilan: Toshkentdan sharqda Toshkent, Ohangaron va Boshqizilsoy, Farg‘ona vodiysida Farg‘ona, janubi-g‘arbda Samarqand va Shahrisabz; kattalashtirilgan qo‘shimcha xarita va joylashuv xaritasi bilan
1-rasm. Tadqiqot hududi va O‘zbekistondagi GNIP stansiyalari. Manba: Serik Isabekov et al. (2026), CC BY 4.0.
Har bir stansiya (Toshkent, Ohangaron, Boshqizilsoy, Farg‘ona, Samarqand, Shahrisabz) uchun δ²H ning δ¹⁸O ga bog‘liqligini ko‘rsatuvchi oltita nuqtali grafik; har birida deyarli ustma-ust tushgan oltita regressiya chizig‘i va ularning tenglamalari
3-rasm. GNIP stansiyalarining mahalliy meteor suv chiziqlari. Manba: Serik Isabekov et al. (2026), CC BY 4.0.

Iqtibos namunasi

Serik Isabekov, Bakhriddin Nishonov, Utkir Balxiev, Bekhzod Nishonov and Tamara Marković (2026). Analysis of the Stable Isotopic Composition of Precipitation in Uzbekistan Using Different Regression Methods. Proceedings of reviewed papers: 6th Croatian geomathematical congress (University of Zagreb, Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering), 167–175. https://doi.org/10.17794/cgc.2026.11