Jurnal maqolasiOchiq kirish
Qozog‘istondagi Jem artezian havzasi suvli kompleksining ishlatish zaxiralarini MODFLOW yordamida baholash
MODFLOW Application for Exploitable Groundwater Resource Assessment of the Zhem Artesian Basin Aquifer Complex, Kazakhstan
- Institute of Hydrogeology and Geoecology named after U. M. Ahmedsafin, Satbayev University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
- Department of Water, Oil and Gas Resources and Geo-Risks, Kyrgyz State Technical University named after I. Razzakov, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Ariel University, Ariel, Israel
- Department of Environmental Research, Eastern R&D Center, Ariel, Israel
- Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Group, Department of Infrastructure Engineering, Melbourne School of Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
https://doi.org/10.3390/app15105443
Asosiy jihatlar
- Havza maydoni 104 000 km²; model maydoni 163 200 km², 5 × 5 km kataklar.
- Alb–senoman kompleksi: qalinligi 25–980 m (o‘rtacha 147 m); bosim 4–383 m (o‘rtacha 49 m); filtratsiya koeffitsiyenti 0,8–29,8 m/sutka; quduqlar debiti 6 dan 40–63 l/s gacha; minerallashuv 0,2–5,3 g/l.
- Nasos sinovlari: filtratsiya koeffitsiyenti 0,8–14,1 m/sutka (o‘rtacha 5,6, 74 ta uchastka); suv o‘tkazuvchanlik 111–1 070 m²/sutka (o‘rtacha 490); suv berish koeffitsiyenti 0,01–0,2 (o‘rtacha 0,13).
- Suv namunalari minerallashuv bo‘yicha: 37 tasi (69%) 1 g/l dan kam, 7 tasi (13%) 1–3 g/l, 10 tasi (18%) 3–10 g/l.
- Ishlatish zaxiralari sutkasiga 755 ming m³ (131 ta kon va uchastka); tasdiqlangan zaxiralar sutkasiga 173 000 m³; modellashtirilgan uzoq muddatli zaxiralar sutkasiga 629 400 m³.
- Pasayish voronkalari 50–80 m gacha; daryolar oqimi sutkasiga taxminan 110 ming m³ ga (taxminan 6%) kamayadi.
Annotatsiya
Groundwater resources are becoming increasingly scarce, especially in arid regions of western Kazakhstan. By 2070, the domestic and drinking water demands will increase from 640 to 901 thousand m3/day. This deficiency may be overcome by utilizing the Zhem Artesian Basin’s Cretaceous Albian–Cenomanian aquifer complex. The hydrodynamic interactions between the 123 known aquifer segments and recharge zones of these promising, exploitable, high-quality groundwater sources are unclear. While MODFLOW is a nominal platform for groundwater flow assessment, which is usually used for the simulation of simple hydrological scenarios, in this study, integrating several different scales and functional modules over a GIS platform enabled delineation and the forecast of this multi-layer aquifer complex. The MODFLOW simulation assessed exploitable groundwater resources and reservoir interactions, enabling the establishment of a simultaneous operation to the Zhem aquifer complex and its neighboring reservoirs. The model suggests that the total exploitable groundwater resources may grow to 629.4 thousand m3/day during the next 50 years. The simultaneous drawdown model suggests a water level decrease of up to 80 m at the end of this period, which will cause a river flow reduction of approximately 6% of the average long-term river flow. Thus, the assessed exploitable groundwater resources will cover more than 70% of the future regional water demand. The mathematical model developed may be used for monitoring and forecasting groundwater head and water balance changes and may be applied to attain a more detailed groundwater resource transfer scheme with economic criteria.
Ingliz tilidagi annotatsiya maqoladan olingan. Mualliflar annotatsiyasi CC BY 4.0 litsenziyasi asosida keltirilgan. Annotatsiya ingliz tilida berilgan.
Kalit so‘zlar
- yer osti suvlarining ishlatish zaxiralari
- sonli modellashtirish
- Jem artezian havzasi
- yer osti suvini olish
- bosimning ruxsat etilgan pasayishi
- MODFLOW modeli
Sodda qilib aytganda
Satboyev universiteti qoshidagi U.M. Ahmedsafin nomidagi Gidrogeologiya va geoekologiya institutidan Doniyor S. Saparg‘aliyev, Yermek J. Murtazin va Vladimir A. Smolyar hamda Ariel universitetidan Vladimir Mirlas va Yaakov Anker Qozog‘iston g‘arbidagi Jem artezian havzasining yer osti suvlarini modellashtiradi. Havza Kaspiy botig‘ining sharqiy qismida joylashgan, maydoni 104 000 km², uning 82% i Aqto‘be viloyatiga to‘g‘ri keladi. Paleozoydan oldingi burmali poydevor 5–12 km chuqurlikda yotadi. Qozog‘iston yer osti suvlari kadastrida havzada 131 ta razvedka qilingan yer osti suvi koni va uchastkasi qayd etilgan, ularning ishlatish zaxiralari sutkasiga 755 ming m³, asosan alb–senoman qatlamlarida. Bu zaxiralarning 79% i chuchuk (minerallashuvi 1 g/l gacha), 14% ida minerallashuv 1–3 g/l.
Eng keng tarqalgan va istiqbolli qatlam — quyi bo‘r–senoman suvli kompleksi (K1–K2s). Uning suvli yotqiziqlari qalinligi 25–980 m, o‘rtacha 147 m, yer osti suvlari bosimi 4–383 m, o‘rtacha 49 m. Filtratsiya koeffitsiyenti 0,8–29,8 m/sutka, quduqlar debiti 6 dan 40–63 l/s gacha. Umumiy minerallashuv 0,2–5,3 g/l bo‘lib, oqim yo‘nalishi bo‘yicha shimoli-sharqdan janubi-g‘arbga ortib boradi. Shimoli-sharqdagi Kundaktaqir, Qandyag‘ash, Saribuloq va boshqa konlarda chuchuk suv gidrokarbonat-kalsiy-magniyli; janubi-g‘arbga tomon u xlorid-sulfatli va sulfat-xlorid-gidrokarbonatli natriyli hamda natriy-kalsiyli suvga aylanadi. Undan pastda, 90–1 100 m chuqurlikda, qalinligi 30–100 m bo‘lgan quyi bo‘r apt–neokom kompleksi (K1) yotadi.
MODFLOW modeli 5 × 5 km kataklardan iborat to‘rda 163 200 km² ni qamrab oladi; chegaraviy shartlar daryo, doimiy bosim, to‘yinish va bug‘lanishni hisobga oladi. Gidravlik parametrlar 88 ta uchastkadagi tajriba nasos sinovlaridan olingan, Emba, Kenkiyak, Qandyag‘ash, Alg‘a, Shubarqudiq va boshqa hududlardagi 2007–2022-yillardagi suv olish hajmi modelga kiritilgan. Filtratsiya koeffitsiyenti o‘rtacha 5,6 m/sutka (0,8–14,1), suv o‘tkazuvchanlik 490 m²/sutka (111–1 070), suv berish koeffitsiyenti 0,13.
25 va 50 yillik prognozlarga ko‘ra, havzaning uzoq muddatli ishlatish zaxiralari sutkasiga 629 400 m³ ni tashkil etadi, 123 ta suvli qatlam segmenti va suv olish inshootida tasdiqlangan zaxiralar esa sutkasiga 173 000 m³. Tasdiqlangan barcha zaxiralar bir vaqtda olinsa, chuqurligi 50–80 m gacha bo‘lgan pasayish voronkalari hosil bo‘ladi va daryolar oqimi sutkasiga taxminan 110 ming m³ ga, ya’ni ko‘p yillik o‘rtacha oqimning taxminan 6% iga kamayadi. Kenkiyak, Qandyag‘ash, Jarqamis va Djurunda pasayish ruxsat etilgan qiymatdan oshishi mumkin, shu sababli ularning salohiyati 122 560 dan 37 000 m³/sutkagacha kamayadi. Mualliflar xulosasiga ko‘ra, sutkasiga 630 000 m³ ichimlik sifatidagi yer osti suvi Aqto‘be, Atirau va Mang‘istov viloyatlarining 2070-yilgacha sutkasiga 640 mingdan 901 ming m³ gacha o‘sadigan kelajakdagi ehtiyojining 70% idan ortig‘ini qoplay oladi.
Rasmlar (1)
Iqtibos namunasi
Daniyar Serikovich Sapargaliyev, Yermek Zhamshitovich Murtazin, Vladimir Mirlas, Vladimir Alexandrovich Smolyar and Yaakov Anker (2025). MODFLOW Application for Exploitable Groundwater Resource Assessment of the Zhem Artesian Basin Aquifer Complex, Kazakhstan. Applied Sciences, vol. 15, no. 10, 5443. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15105443